Comment by DeOrio

September 20, 2006 @ 6:32 pm

Nice, Ken, nice. It’s a first for our humble little endeavor - I just got home from work and got the vote totals from Seijigiri before I saw them anywhere else. I feel like my baby is taking its first steps.
I hope it won’t be too vain of me to say “太平洋横断放送万歳!”

Comment by Cal Hobbs

September 21, 2006 @ 4:19 am

How exactly do you pronounce “?????????!” ?

Good coverage of the vote.

How do you foresee the change in PM changing things for Japan?

What if any thing will be the most noticeable impact on US business interests and business people in Japan?

Comment by DeOrio

September 21, 2006 @ 5:28 am

Mr. Hobbs, it seems you’re our second-biggest fan (after my dear, sweet grandmother), if I’m not being too bold in calling you a fan.
Thanks for your encouragement and for listening.
“太平洋横断放送” (Taiheiyou-oudan Housou) is, literally, “Trans-Pacific Broadcasting” and is the official name of TPR. “万歳!” (Banzai!) means, literally, “Ten-thousand years!” and is a common cheer wishing long life and success.
How PM Abe will change Japan is a very, very difficult question and I really don’t know what to expect. On one hand, he’s a relatively young guy who has been with Koizumi on many reformist issues, on the other hand, he’s, as Albrecht said, “a horse trader,” who is a product of the faction system and a political family. Then again, so was Koizumi, and I think it’s fair to say that Koizumi was not in the mold of his predecessors. So you see how it keeps going back and forth. Although this may be a non-answer, I expect to be both surprised and not by Abe. If I had to wager, though, I’d bet that Abe is going to be more of a machine man than Koizumi was and that relations with the rest of the region aren’t going to improve much. I think we’ll see this trend of nationalism continue to wax under Abe. I also think Abe’s tenure will be shorter than Koizumi’s, although I expect PMs, in general, to stay in office longer than they have in the past.
This is all just speculation from one observer, though. Nothing to take as fact. I’m wrong as often as, perhaps more often than I’m right.
As for the impact on US business interests, I think Abe is just as pro-US and pro-business as Koizumi. I also think the business environment has become more conducive to foreign involvement and I don’t think Abe or a rise in nationalism will change this. I think Japan is on a long-term, very long-term trend of opening up more and more and that this trend is stronger than any political movement that is occurring or on the horizon.
I think the same holds true for businesspeople. Xenophobia is on the decline. Language aside, it is no harder for a foreign entrepreneur with the proper visa to set up a business than it is for a Japanese citizen and the business community in Japan is steadily becoming friendlier to foreign businessmen. Americans, in particular, have not, in recent years at least, had a tough time in Japan. On the whole, Americans tend to receive better treatment than other foreigners and myriad Americans and American companies do business sans undo hindrance in Japan. I think the broad trends will continue and I don’t think American businesspeople need worry.

Comment by ken

September 21, 2006 @ 8:15 pm

I also think Abe’s tenure will be shorter than Koizumi’s

Given that it\’s legally impossible for it to be longer, without Abe staging some sort of coup, I\’d say that\’s a safe bet. I wonder if there\’s a Vegas line on that one. I\’d give you 30 months on the over/under.

I expect PMs, in general, to stay in office longer than they have in the past.

The country really better hope so.

Xenophobia is on the decline.

I\’m not convinced. It\’s not the right forum for it, but with the popularity of some nihonjinron writers right now, I\’m just not convinced. As far as North Americans go? With 49,000 Americans out of about 2 million registered foreign residents (Dec 31, 2004 stats), they\’re statistically insignificant.

Comment by DeOrio

September 22, 2006 @ 6:03 am

Thanks, Ken. Yes, LDP rules limit Abe to two three year terms, Koizumi served just under 5 1/2 years, so Abe couldn’t do more. (An Abe coup! My, that would be something. I don’t think many people in my neighborhood would much care.) I meant much shorter. Abe’s first test, at least that can be predicted, will be the House of Councillors election next July. If the LDP does poorly enough, that could well be the end of the Abe kantei. Barring that (and it doesn’t seem highly likely at the moment), I’d be amazed if he lasted 30 months, which is a good run for a Japanese PM.
I wonder if there’s a trend going on worldwide. Koizumi just served for 5 1/2 years, Silvio Berlusconi served five years in Italy, which is unbelievably long for an Italian PM - few post-War Italian governments have lasted a year, Blair in the UK is coming up on ten years (and is also set to leave), which not unheard of at all, but is a good bit longer than average. The US, with it’s predictable term length, has had two consecutive two-term Presidents serve full terms (assuming nothing causes Bush to leave office early) in Clinton and Bush, which hasn’t happened since Madison and Monroe, and the list goes on. Probably means nothing, but it could be that that’s just the direction in which wealthy nations are headed.

As for the xenophobia issue, there’s no need to debate it here, we have a podcast after all. I’ll just say that I don’t think Japan, as a whole is becoming more xenophobic, despite the rising nationalism and popularity of nihonjinron, any more than the US is becoming more racist (I don’t think it is.) It is definitely true, though, that Westerners in general are not a significant part of the foreign or immigrant population of Japan. For business visitors, it’s all about money anyway. Japan’s not going to become any more dangerous for Americans than America is for Americans.

Comment by Ken

September 22, 2006 @ 3:30 pm

Ah…Silvio Berlusconi, pure class.

Comment by Cal Hobbs

September 26, 2006 @ 1:02 am

Ken

Surely you don’t expect politicians to be classy do you?

Sorry, that is like believing that buffalo’s have wings.

Berlusconi had the one asset every politician would like to have — billions of dollars in his pocket. I cannot understand the lust for power. Give me billions of dollars and you can wear the ceremonial sash.

Comment by DeOrio

September 26, 2006 @ 1:29 am

I can’t speak for Ken, but I would neither expect politicians to actually be classy nor to so publicly display a lack of class.
I think once you have a few billion dollars, you need something to do. Running a country would be a pretty engaging task, unless you were Berlusconi and just didn’t do the job while you had it.