Predictions on the eve of the Six Party Talks: More talk about abductions and Japan’s ‘right wing agenda’
One thing’s for sure: when you invite North Korea to the party, it’s never going to be boring.
On the eve of the resumption of the Six Party Talks, North Korea has accused Japan of kidnapping one of its nationals from Russia in 1991. The man in question is Kim Thae Yong, who reportedly went missing while working as a linguist at a college on Russia’s Sakhalin Island, which lies just north of Japan’s northernmost territory.
In a report issued on Saturday afternoon, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), had this to say:
The insincere approach taken by Japan toward the issue of probing the case is intolerable, both from the elementary humanitarian point of view and the standpoint on improving the DPRK (North Korea)-Japan relations. We vehemently condemn this case as a serious infringement upon the sovereignty of the DPRK as Kim, able linguist of the DPRK, is presumed to be lured and abducted by Japan.
Japan, of course, is expected to raise the issue of its own citizens who were abducted to North Korea at the Six Party Talks, as it has been doing since their inception. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said that there will be no talks unless the abductee issue is on the agenda.
North Korea’s move, which looks like an attempt to force a stalemate over the issue as well as distract the agenda from its true focus (we’re supposed to be talking about nuclear weapons and technology, right?) puts Japan in an odd position: the very nature of its insistence upon discussing the abduction issue has been called into question.
Why is Japan so fixated on using the Six Party Talks as a vehicle for discussing the abduction issue? That’s where the ‘right wing’ comes into play:
In a piece in this Sunday’s New York Times entitled “Japan Rightists Fan Fury Over North Korea Abductions,” Norimitsu Onishi delves into the reasons why the abduction issue has become so very politicized in Japan. As he bluntly puts it: it’s an emotional issue, it’s easy for the public to get behind, and until he took up the issue as a personal vendetta, Shinzo Abe toiled in relative obscurity.
Politically, it is impossible for Abe to lessen the pressure on the abduction issue. It is what ushered him to victory in September LDP Presidential election. Keeping the issue as one of his cornerstones has allowed him to pass education reform bills requiring schools to teach a more patriotic view of Japan’s history. It also helped him push through a bill that will turn the Defense Agency into the Defense Ministry from next month, one that this observer firmly supports, yet believes it would have been better to have focused on other issues at the time.
To be sure, Abe has been busy, and he’s been getting a lot done. Little of it, however, seems to have much to do with his “Beautiful Country Japan” initiative that he spoke of in his policy speech to the Diet on September 29. When Abe made that speech, he was enjoying terrifically high approval ratings - a reflection of the fact that people generally thought he had good ideas and would do good things. Now, almost all polls show the Prime Minister’s approval ratings at below 50%. Although the public feels disconnected from what the Prime Minister has been doing, it’s the manner in which he has done so that seems to be putting people off so much. Quite simply, he is treating political matters as though their conclusion is foregone, and he has proven to be very poor at explaining what he’s doing to the public. The big issues - structural reform in education, bullying, the pension system, the country’s low birthrate - have all taken backseat to Abe’s attempt to satisfy the nation’s right wing.
Back to the Six Party Talks: as they begin tomorrow morning, we know one thing for certain. Japan has announced that there are no plans for bilateral talks with North Korea. This means that any talk over the abduction issue(s) will have to be done with the other members at the table. This observer doubts that the other members will have much patience for this. As we have previously noted on TPR, western observers such as Columbia University professor Gerald Curtis have publicly criticized Japan for continuing to us the Six Party Talks as a vehicle to discuss the abduction issue. Without bilateral talks between the two countries, it will be hard to imagine them making much progress this week.
So, the questions are: Are the Six Party Talks the appropriate framework for Japan to be discussing the abduction issue? Is it really being pushed on the agenda by the ‘right wing’? To what extent are conservative politicians in Japan mining the issue for political gain?
With that said, some predictions for the talks:
1. North Korea has ensured that Japan will have a harder time discussing the abduction issue. No progress whatsoever will be made on this issue. North Korea will again accuse Japan of inflating the alleged number of abductees, distracting further from the issue at hand.
2. One of the members will suggest that Japan and North Korea enter bilateral talks concerning the abduction issues. North Korea will reject the idea out of hand. Japan’s negotiator, Kenichiro Sasae, will continue to assert that Japan is open to the idea.
3. If nuclear weapons or technologies are discussed seriously, some progress could be made.
4. Just kidding about #3. I don’t see any serious progress being made at this stage of the talks since North Korea will most likely demand that the United States ease its restrictions on international banking operations, which the US will not do without some concession in return.
Though I must say, I hope I’m wrong.
Related Posts:
- Seijigiri #18: February 23, 2007 - The Six-Party Talks Roundup
- Just Kidding, Ozawa’s Staying
- Seijigiri #8 - October 10, 2006 - A special update on the North Korean nuclear test
- Japan-U.S. Beef Talks Set
- Seijigiri #17 - February 9, 2007 - Ministerial misspeak leads to the birthrate leads to 外人犯罪裏ファイル leads to some intemperance









