In this edition of TPR News, we look at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision against a Cabinet reshuffle at this time, what the Prime Minister has to say about the 1993 ‘Kono Statement,’ Japan’s recent bilateral talks with North Korea in Hanoi, two economic reports from the Cabinet Office, and discover which nation in Asia now has the largest number of billionaires…

Politics

Speaking on NHK television on Sunday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that there will be no reshuffle of his cabinet members before the July Upper House election, saying, “I am not at all thinking about reshuffling my Cabinet, and the election will be held under the current Cabinet.”

Rumors of a potential restructuring of the Cabinet had been swirling since late February, when both the Asahi Shimbun (Shiozaki battles lawmaker plotting) and the Yomiuri Shimbun (Calls for Cabinet reshuffle continue and Shiozaki target in reshuffle) reported that such a move was seemingly in the works. Shiozaki’s name emerged as a target due to his seeming inability to handle the consensus building necessary to ensure that the Kantei continue to work well with the Liberal Democratic Party itself, among other factors.

In a telephone interview poll conducted by the Nikkei on February 23-25, immediately following the published rumors of a Cabinet reshuffle, 29% of respondents agreed that, “There should be restructuring before the House of Councillors election in July,” while 31% agreed that, “There should be restructuring after the House of Councillors election in July,” and 26% felt, “There is no pressing need to restructure.”

For a detailed analysis of the goings-on surrounding the Shiozaki incident, we recommend a recent piece entitled Shiozaki Out? Takenaka in? Who’s to blame for Abe’s sputtering? by Adam Richards of the Mutant Frog Travelogue. Concerning Abe’s decision to not engage in a Cabinet reshuffle at this time, Mr Richards has published an excellent article just a few hours ago entitled No Cabinet Reshuffle…for Now.

With the Cabinet’s roles set at least until late summer, Mr Abe now seems free to return to his agenda of reforming education and pursuing Constitutional reform. However, according to an opinion poll published Sunday by the Tokyo Shimbun, when asked what factors were on their mind in the leadup to this April’s local elections and this summer’s Upper House election, 26% cited “the declining birth rate, aging population and social welfare services”, while 23% mentioned the “economy and employment”, and 17% cited “fiscal budget issues.” Interestingly, only 8% listed “education,” which was the same number who said 「政治とカネ」, or “Politics and money,” an issue not set in the crosshairs of the Abe Cabinet’s reform program.

One may wonder why so many respondents seemed concerned with “fiscal budget issues.” As the Tokyo Shimbun points out, the public worry is connected with the conditions faced by the town of Yubari in Hokkaido. The town, which formerly boasted a booming coal mine industry, is now 35.3 billion yen in debt - a figure considerably larger than its 4.4 billion yen budget for fiscal 2005.. As the Japan Times points out:

As Yubari becomes a “municipality under rehabilitation” with its budget monitored by the internal affairs ministry, its citizens will carry a heavy financial burden even as they see the quality of their public services decline to nearly the lowest level among the nation’s municipalities. The city’s 13,000 residents, 40 percent of whom are at least 65 years old, face a long period of perseverance. Reviving the city will tax the ingenuity and efforts of city officials and citizens alike.

Fears of Yubari-esque conditions extend even beyond Japan’s borders, with the Charleston, West Virginia Gazette admonishing its readers, saying:

Mined-out West Virginia communities should ponder the Yubari example…Areas that enjoy large populations and a broad tax base one decade, or even for much of a century, cannot count on that tax base forever. To succeed, regions must produce something that others want to buy, and they must not risk all their livelihoods on one industry. It’s an old lesson, but as timely in West Virginia as in Japan.

In the 1960s, Yubari boasted a population of 120,000 residents.

During his Sunday appearance on NHK television, Prime Minister Abe also reaffirmed apologies to so-called ‘comfort women’ made by his predecessors, and especially those sentiments expressed by the 1993 ‘Kono Statement.’ Mr Abe said:

I’ve expressed my sincere apologies to those who have suffered psychological wounds and underwent immeasurable painful experiences…Former Prime Minister Koizumi, as well as former Prime Minister Hashimoto, have sent letters [of apology] to former comfort women. The feelings of my predecessors are something that I completely share.

In reference to the Kono statement itself, Abe concluded by stating, “My comments on the matter have been consistent in Diet sessions, as well as in press conferences. I will stick to the statement.”

Japan and North Korea

On March 8 and 9, diplomats from Japan and North Korea met in Hanoi to kick off meetings as part of the working group that had been set up as part of the Six-Party Talks framework last month. As expected, there were surprises, drama, and not much in the way of progress. TPR’s Alex Pappas has been following the developments as they’ve unfolded, and we’ll now turn to him for a brief summary..

Good afternoon, Alex. Thanks for coming on today.

Hi Ken. Thanks for having me.

So Alex…could you give us a roundup of what happened over the two days of talks between Japan and North Korea?

The two day talks which were held in Hanoi this week were aimed at normalizing relations between the two nations while giving both parties an opportunity to talk about sensitive issues for both sides. This was the first formal session between Japan and North Korea in over a year so it was an important step forward. The talks were arranged to discuss Pyongyang’s abductions of Japanese citizens and for North Korea’s delegation to talk about taking measures in resolving the nuclear dispute in return for economic aid.

The two days were consecutive: Wednesday March 8th and then Thursday March 9th. It seemed as though things started off on the right foot. The Japanese were represented by Haraguchi Koichi and the North Koreans by Song Il-Ho, both of whom shook hands before the meeting, although no smiles where shared. Actually, prior to the start of the meeting Song seemed rather optimistic, saying, “I hope both nations will have a good sense of responsibility and commitment and contribute to implementing the six-nation agreement by holding this meeting.”

The first topic on the table was more or less an opportunity for the diplomats to spend time discussing the kidnappings in the 1970’s and 1980’s of Japanese citizens by clandestine North Korean officials. After a morning meeting which took place the Japanese embassy in Vietnam, the North Korean officials just got up and left the embassy saying the meeting was finished and there would be no more sessions.

The deputy secretary at the Japanese Foreign Ministry, Taniguchi Tomohiko, confirmed that talks had been suspended. However, he said that Thursday’s meeting would go ahead as planned. The second meeting also ran short, lasting a reported 45 minutes before being terminated. And that’s pretty much how things were left between the two.

What might come of this in the future? Where are the talks headed from here?

It’s difficult to say exactly what the future holds. The world of diplomats and international relations is always in flux. But there is no doubt that the international communities, including Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, are studying this situation very carefully. As you know, Abe has made the abduction issue one of Tokyo’s top-priority goals in working with Pyongyang and has publicly vowed to keep up the pressure until the issue is resolved.

As for other nations such as China, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, I think they are also closely monitoring the unfolding events, presumably wishing to see an outcome that enables Japan to participate in a plan that would hopefully see North Korea dismantle its nuclear facilities as discussed in the six party talk agreements.

Having said that, I do think the Prime Minister complicated matters a bit with recent remarks saying there was no evidence that Japan “coerced” women into being sex slaves during World War 2. Abe’s remarks were widely seen outside of Japan as an attempt by the government to dodge responsibility. And North Koreans who are still demanding a settlement on the issue could be using that as a reason to play a little bit of political hardball.

There is some political danger here for Prime Minister Abe because if Pyongyang makes significant progress toward denuclearization, the international community, and in particular those involved in the six party talks, may start heavily pressuring the Japanese government to abandon its hardline policy, the result of which could make Abe’s government appear ineffectual and further hurt the Prime Minister nationally in the polls.

For the moment, though, both nations are going to have to proceed with diplomatic caution. Japan must avoid becoming isolated with regards to its foreign policy on Pyongyang. But having said that, if the DPRK believes it can gain economic and energy aid by biding its time until Japan collapses under international pressure and gives in to other nations involved with the six party talks, Prime Minister Abe may be all too willing to show them how mistaken they really are. It’s going to be wait and see as usual.

Business

Japan is no longer home to Asia’s greatest concentration of billionaires. In its annual report on the status of the world’s richest people, Forbes magazine reports that India now boasts 36 billionaires, up from 23 a year ago. Japan, on the other hand, slipped from 27 to 24 individuals with a net worth of greater than one billion dollars.

Speaking of India and Japan, the two nations are set to establish an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) during the next year. Katsuhito Asano, Senior Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, visited India on March 8 and 9 and took part in the “Symposium on Japan and India,” where Rakesh Mohan, a deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said that deeper and more intensive policy work is needed to establish economic linkages between India and Japan towards greater regional integration in Asia.

On Monday, the Cabinet Office released its revision of Japan’s 2006 fourth quarter GDP statistics. The figures showed a 1.3% increase in GDP from the previous quarter, an upward revision from the previous 1.2%. In annualized terms, GDP estimates increased from 4.8% to 5.5%. The growth pace in the forth quarter of 2006 was the fastest since the October-December quarter of 2003, when real GDP grew by 1.5% over the previous quarter, for an annualized rate of 6.3%.

On Wednesday morning, it came to light that the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), which is part of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, is investigating the failure of Tohoku Electric Power Company to report an emergency shutdown of a reactor at its Onagawa nuclear power plant in Miyagi Prefecture in 1998. According to the Asahi Shimbun, workers at the plant failed to notify the company’s headquarters that an automatic shutdown had taken place.

Finally, the Cabinet Office on Monday reported a slight increase in February’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The survey demonstrated gains in three of the five categories measured: Consumer confidence, Income growth, and Employment. ‘Overall livelihood’ and ‘and Willingness to buy durable goods’ showed a slight decreases. Scores for ‘Employment’ and ‘Willingness to buy durable goods’ remain on the positive side of the scale, while respondents were negative on the other three. The report shows an improvement from two months ago, when all five categories tallied scores that represented an overall mood of pessimism concerning the future.

Listen Now:

 TPR News: 3/13/07: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download