Comments on: Building a Beautiful Japan: The Survey Results http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/ Independent Podcasting from Tokyo. Featuring Seijigiri, a discussion of Japanese news and politics, as well as TPR News, our twice a week look at Japan's top stories. Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:20:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.3 by: Building a Beautiful Japan: The Survey Results : Japan Economy News & Blog http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-512907 Sun, 02 Dec 2007 13:51:12 +0000 http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-512907 [...] I’ve added a file to the “Research and Reports on Japan” section. This is the results of the Cabinet Office’s survey into what it means to build a “Beautiful Japan.” The report is in Japanese, although I have published a partial translation at Trans-Pacific Radio. If anyone is interested in obtaining a full translation (since I don’t think the Cabinet Office will do so, and it is bound to be useful for marketers), please get in touch. [...] […] I’ve added a file to the “Research and Reports on Japan” section. This is the results of the Cabinet Office’s survey into what it means to build a “Beautiful Japan.” The report is in Japanese, although I have published a partial translation at Trans-Pacific Radio. If anyone is interested in obtaining a full translation (since I don’t think the Cabinet Office will do so, and it is bound to be useful for marketers), please get in touch. […]

]]> by: DeOrio http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-196631 Tue, 10 Jul 2007 08:19:20 +0000 http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-196631 The sample size is fine - 1,200 is considered by pollsters to be the ideal balance between accuracy and cost, provided the sample is <em>random</em>. The government sent out 3,000 questionnaires and got 1,827 back. That right there is the problem. If the government counts only those voluntarily sent back, the sample is no longer random because the respondents are self-selecting. The survey is not even an accurate measure of which of the pre-selected answers people like best. It is a pep rally, not a survey. Had the government randomly sent out 1,827 questionnaires and gotten back 1,827 back, there would be no problem on that end and we could expect a margin of error of under 4%. If the selection of participants is randomized well, the increased accuracy of going over a couple thousand respondents diminishes so quickly as to be not very well worth it. 1,827 is not the problem. 1,173 is the problem. The sample size is fine - 1,200 is considered by pollsters to be the ideal balance between accuracy and cost, provided the sample is random. The government sent out 3,000 questionnaires and got 1,827 back. That right there is the problem. If the government counts only those voluntarily sent back, the sample is no longer random because the respondents are self-selecting. The survey is not even an accurate measure of which of the pre-selected answers people like best. It is a pep rally, not a survey.

Had the government randomly sent out 1,827 questionnaires and gotten back 1,827 back, there would be no problem on that end and we could expect a margin of error of under 4%.

If the selection of participants is randomized well, the increased accuracy of going over a couple thousand respondents diminishes so quickly as to be not very well worth it.

1,827 is not the problem. 1,173 is the problem.

]]> by: ken http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-196557 Tue, 10 Jul 2007 07:16:34 +0000 http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-196557 I don't buy it, Ken...not for a second. Common sense tells me the sample size is way too small to be indicative of what the general public actually thinks, and that the setting up of multiple choice, pre-arranged 'answers' is misleading at best, but more likely to be a pure lie. I'm not sure about that Survey System website either. They sure look like good sales people for their services! I don't see any mathematicians on their website. Point is, it's impossible (and naive) to trust governments with projects such as these, where the goal is to rig the results to look like their agenda is supported (sounds a bit familiar, right?) Yes, the percentage should be 0.000014% I don’t buy it, Ken…not for a second. Common sense tells me the sample size is way too small to be indicative of what the general public actually thinks, and that the setting up of multiple choice, pre-arranged ‘answers’ is misleading at best, but more likely to be a pure lie.

I’m not sure about that Survey System website either. They sure look like good sales people for their services! I don’t see any mathematicians on their website.

Point is, it’s impossible (and naive) to trust governments with projects such as these, where the goal is to rig the results to look like their agenda is supported (sounds a bit familiar, right?)

Yes, the percentage should be 0.000014%

]]> by: Ken Y-N http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-196545 Tue, 10 Jul 2007 07:03:04 +0000 http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-196545 <blockquote>I think we also need to bear in mind that this survey represents the views of about 0.0000014% of Japan’s population (I’m using 127,000,000 as the population of Japan). These numbers hardly seem relevant.</blockquote> They are relevant, as the Cabinet Office surveys always use random sampling from the electoral rolls, they conduct face-to-face interviews, and they usually (not this time, however!) report on why people don't respond. It is possible with even just 384 respondents to have a 95% confidence that your results are within 5% of the true figures, and given the sample size in this survey, the confidence interval is 2.3%. http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm (I also think the percentage is a factor of 10 too small)

I think we also need to bear in mind that this survey represents the views of about 0.0000014% of Japan’s population (I’m using 127,000,000 as the population of Japan). These numbers hardly seem relevant.

They are relevant, as the Cabinet Office surveys always use random sampling from the electoral rolls, they conduct face-to-face interviews, and they usually (not this time, however!) report on why people don’t respond. It is possible with even just 384 respondents to have a 95% confidence that your results are within 5% of the true figures, and given the sample size in this survey, the confidence interval is 2.3%.

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

(I also think the percentage is a factor of 10 too small)

]]> by: DeOrio http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-193452 Sun, 08 Jul 2007 13:07:42 +0000 http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-193452 Couldn't agree more, guys. Any survey, no matter how large, that counts only those who choose to respond and that offers only pre-selected answers, with no weight given to the negative, is unscientific and useless at best. Couldn’t agree more, guys. Any survey, no matter how large, that counts only those who choose to respond and that offers only pre-selected answers, with no weight given to the negative, is unscientific and useless at best.

]]> by: WG http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-192986 Sun, 08 Jul 2007 07:10:36 +0000 http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-192986 I think Shawn's on to something, and it reveals a bit into the thinking process of this administration. Abe can come out and say this is what the public thinks or wants without actually, honestly asking them. I don't think anyone buys it, and the only danger is if he stays in office long enough to do anything. I think Shawn’s on to something, and it reveals a bit into the thinking process of this administration. Abe can come out and say this is what the public thinks or wants without actually, honestly asking them. I don’t think anyone buys it, and the only danger is if he stays in office long enough to do anything.

]]> by: Shawn http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-192448 Sat, 07 Jul 2007 23:54:39 +0000 http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-192448 What a pointless survey. Here's my cynical take: Abe has already published his version of a beautiful country. In publishing a survey with pre-defined answers, it's is a vain attempt to see if the public agrees with Abe. Even though the sample is very small, if the responses favor Abe's view he can use the survey to foist his cockamamie vision of Japan on the public. What a pointless survey. Here’s my cynical take: Abe has already published his version of a beautiful country. In publishing a survey with pre-defined answers, it’s is a vain attempt to see if the public agrees with Abe.

Even though the sample is very small, if the responses favor Abe’s view he can use the survey to foist his cockamamie vision of Japan on the public.

]]> by: John S http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-191910 Sat, 07 Jul 2007 18:38:06 +0000 http://www.transpacificradio.com/2007/07/08/building-a-beautiful-japan-the-survey-results/#comment-191910 Why is food culture so low? Japan absolutely rules in terms of food. I've never lived anywhere with such diversity of food and regional specialties and local chefs so highly trained in carrying on food tradition. I agree that TV goes overboard - I once saw B-list celebrities eating pancakes on TV - but overall, no other country compares in terms of selection, adoptation and quality of professional chefs at traditional recipies. Why is food culture so low? Japan absolutely rules in terms of food. I’ve never lived anywhere with such diversity of food and regional specialties and local chefs so highly trained in carrying on food tradition. I agree that TV goes overboard - I once saw B-list celebrities eating pancakes on TV - but overall, no other country compares in terms of selection, adoptation and quality of professional chefs at traditional recipies.

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