Comments on: Seijigiri #28: The Upper House Campaign Gets Underway, Kyuma and Koike

by: DeOrio

Fri, 20 Jul 2007 15:32:13 +0000

I think the DPJ almost has to have one of its best showings ever and there’s no doubt that the LDP has a lot to worry about, but I’d say a resounding loss would result in the LDP digging its heels in and trying to recoup. Coming off of a success, the DPJ would have momentum and would likely see a brief boost in popularity, which would make it dangerous for the LDP to risk anything they already had. I think it’s very unlikely that the LDP will call for elections, but that would make this one exciting summer.

by: Ken Worsley

Fri, 20 Jul 2007 06:17:37 +0000

Makurein,

There’s no doubt that it’s possible, although as you said, the ruling party is by no means required to dissolve the Diet. It was discussed a while back in the Japanese media, but the possibility of such an election seems to be put off to the side again. With the Yomiuri showing a boost in the Cabinet’s approval ratings, perhaps we’re seeing the DPJ come up short yet again…

by: Makurein

Fri, 20 Jul 2007 04:36:03 +0000

Would the LDP/Komeito’s loss of the upper house create any pressure for the ruling coalition to dissolve parliament and hold lower house elections in the near future? Obviously, that’s not something that the ruling party is required to do, but if they feel their level of support is dangerously low, would they fire Abe and try to go after a new mandate?

by: DeOrio

Fri, 20 Jul 2007 02:55:45 +0000

The Lower House does have more power, but certain things, such as constitutional amendment, need a 2/3 majority of both houses. Bills have to pass through the Upper House, too. Right now, the LDP-Komeito coalition has enough of a majority in the Lower House to just push things through if they want to, but that might not last. Opposition control of the Upper House would make things a lot more difficult for the ruling coalition.

by: Sam

Thu, 19 Jul 2007 22:02:46 +0000

It’s about time to see the LDP lose out. But because it’s upper house elections will it make a significant difference? Doesn’t the lower house have much more weight in decision making? Or will this influence the LDP’s coalition power in lower house in a significant way?

by: ken

Thu, 19 Jul 2007 10:26:13 +0000

This is very interesting as well, if you have a subscription:

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/AC/TNKS/Nni20070719D19HH351.htm

ANALYSIS: Stock, Forex, Bond Markets Factor In Ruling Bloc’s Defeat

The Nikkei is saying that the markets have already factored the LDP’s defeat into their plans…

The newspaper asked 15 analysts — five from each market — to project the election results and respective market outlook through the end of August. Their average prediction was that the ruling parties will fall short of winning a majority by a margin of seven seats.

The political situation will likely become unstable, weighing on stocks and causing the yen to weaken further, they said. However, they are more interested in corporate earnings for the April-June quarter and when the Bank of Japan will tighten its monetary policy.

The stock market analysts forecast that the ruling parties will fail to secure a majority, with the LDP taking 45 seats and New Komeito winning 12 for a total of 57. Because the market sees little possibility that the resulting political instability will lead to a change of government, investors are not greatly worried that the election outcome will be a source of volatility. But it is expected that the political situation will remain in flux, and that this will restrain upward mobility in the stock market because investors, especially foreign ones, consider political instability to be a negative factor.

by: DeOrio

Thu, 19 Jul 2007 06:28:04 +0000

Very interesting. Thanks, Debito.

by: Arudou Debito

Thu, 19 Jul 2007 06:09:09 +0000

Hi TPR. Thanks as always for your timely reporting.

RE the latest Seijigiri: You and your listeners might find interesting my experiences with campaigning for a local town assembly election here in Hokkaido. How the Election Board does its level best to keep the candidates from debating each other (or for that matter, saying anything of substance in public). Might inform your next Seijigiri:

http://www.debito.org/nanporo2003elections.html

As always, keep up the good work. Debito in Sapporo