Seijigiri #28: The Upper House Campaign Gets Underway, Kyuma and Koike

Filed under: Seijigiri Releases, Trans-Pacific Radio
Posted by Seijigiri at 9:00 am on Tuesday, July 17, 2007

In this edition of Seijigiri, we begin by discussing the background to the upcoming Upper House election, including how many seats are up for grabs and who might win what. We then move on to a discussion of what each party is talking about, and what issues have risen to the forefront of the voters’ minds. Hint: pensions.

We then move to the rural vote and discuss why it’s important and what we could expect from the regions, as well as DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa’s strategy as a reaction to Koizumi’s previous campaign strategies. After that, there is a brief discussion of the poll numbers that have been recently published and what they might mean; could more voters really be pulling for the DPJ this time around? Or will election day see voters return an LDP/New Komeito majority to the Upper House?

Finally, we look at the political fallout over the recent resignation of former Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma. He’s apparently becoming a liability in Nagasaki and Hiroshima, where LDP candidates are trying to distance themselves from him.

This leads into a discussion of the woman who took Kyuma’s job, Yuriko Koike. Until Kyuma’s gaffe, Ms Koike had served as a special adviser on national security to the Prime Minister. That job is now open, and an increasing number of voices amongst the senior LDP leadership are questioning the usefulness of Mr Abe’s special advisers, of whom four were brought on when he assumed the LDP presidency. We will be visiting this issue, as well as the unfolding run up to the election, in the next edition of Seijigiri, due out by the 26th of this month.

As always, thank you for listening.

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8 Comments »

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Comment by Arudou Debito

July 19, 2007 @ 3:09 pm

Hi TPR. Thanks as always for your timely reporting.

RE the latest Seijigiri: You and your listeners might find interesting my experiences with campaigning for a local town assembly election here in Hokkaido. How the Election Board does its level best to keep the candidates from debating each other (or for that matter, saying anything of substance in public). Might inform your next Seijigiri:

http://www.debito.org/nanporo2003elections.html

As always, keep up the good work. Debito in Sapporo

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Comment by DeOrio

July 19, 2007 @ 3:28 pm

Very interesting. Thanks, Debito.

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Comment by ken

July 19, 2007 @ 7:26 pm

This is very interesting as well, if you have a subscription:

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/AC/TNKS/Nni20070719D19HH351.htm

ANALYSIS: Stock, Forex, Bond Markets Factor In Ruling Bloc’s Defeat

The Nikkei is saying that the markets have already factored the LDP’s defeat into their plans…

The newspaper asked 15 analysts — five from each market — to project the election results and respective market outlook through the end of August. Their average prediction was that the ruling parties will fall short of winning a majority by a margin of seven seats.

The political situation will likely become unstable, weighing on stocks and causing the yen to weaken further, they said. However, they are more interested in corporate earnings for the April-June quarter and when the Bank of Japan will tighten its monetary policy.

The stock market analysts forecast that the ruling parties will fail to secure a majority, with the LDP taking 45 seats and New Komeito winning 12 for a total of 57. Because the market sees little possibility that the resulting political instability will lead to a change of government, investors are not greatly worried that the election outcome will be a source of volatility. But it is expected that the political situation will remain in flux, and that this will restrain upward mobility in the stock market because investors, especially foreign ones, consider political instability to be a negative factor.

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Comment by Sam

July 20, 2007 @ 7:02 am

It’s about time to see the LDP lose out. But because it’s upper house elections will it make a significant difference? Doesn’t the lower house have much more weight in decision making? Or will this influence the LDP’s coalition power in lower house in a significant way?

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Comment by DeOrio

July 20, 2007 @ 11:55 am

The Lower House does have more power, but certain things, such as constitutional amendment, need a 2/3 majority of both houses. Bills have to pass through the Upper House, too. Right now, the LDP-Komeito coalition has enough of a majority in the Lower House to just push things through if they want to, but that might not last. Opposition control of the Upper House would make things a lot more difficult for the ruling coalition.

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Comment by Makurein

July 20, 2007 @ 1:36 pm

Would the LDP/Komeito’s loss of the upper house create any pressure for the ruling coalition to dissolve parliament and hold lower house elections in the near future? Obviously, that’s not something that the ruling party is required to do, but if they feel their level of support is dangerously low, would they fire Abe and try to go after a new mandate?

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Comment by Ken Worsley

July 20, 2007 @ 3:17 pm

Makurein,

There’s no doubt that it’s possible, although as you said, the ruling party is by no means required to dissolve the Diet. It was discussed a while back in the Japanese media, but the possibility of such an election seems to be put off to the side again. With the Yomiuri showing a boost in the Cabinet’s approval ratings, perhaps we’re seeing the DPJ come up short yet again…

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Comment by DeOrio

July 21, 2007 @ 12:32 am

I think the DPJ almost has to have one of its best showings ever and there’s no doubt that the LDP has a lot to worry about, but I’d say a resounding loss would result in the LDP digging its heels in and trying to recoup. Coming off of a success, the DPJ would have momentum and would likely see a brief boost in popularity, which would make it dangerous for the LDP to risk anything they already had. I think it’s very unlikely that the LDP will call for elections, but that would make this one exciting summer.

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