Comment by DeOrio

October 25, 2007 @ 11:02 am

Wow, a BizCast! This is like the release of Star Wars Episode I, only without an obnoxious kid, Jar Jar Binks and other evidence that George Lucas blows. This is exciting in that what-if-Episode-I-hadn’t-been-a-letdown way, only with fewer special effects.

There’s a lot of foreshadowing, though - everyone knows Nova’s going to be killed off in the next two episodes.

Comment by DeOrio

October 25, 2007 @ 11:41 pm

Regarding taxis, I think you guys are right on, but didn’t go far enough. Two fundamental problems plague the taxi industry, at least since deregulation in the ’90s: First, there are simply too many taxis. Individual drivers are working long hours for low pay because they’re spending most of their time in empty cabs in most areas. Second, there’s very little value for money. Unlike other national capitals, specifically Washington and, more famously, London, it is simply not at all a safe assumption that a Tokyo cabbie knows his way around or is not going to inadvertently take you for a ride. Most cabs now have GPS, which means nothing as apparently few drivers know how to use it, and is far less helpful than it could be considering there is no Tokyo equivalent of “The Knowledge” - Tokyo cabbies often just don’t know where they’re going.

If cabbies want a better life, they need to pressure license holders to push for regulation, specifically a limit on the numbers of actual cabs on the streets (which would, of course, benefit license holders), as well as for a licensing system. If they’re spending so much time behind the wheel, why not make it a profession? Raise standards, make sure drivers have that most basic of qualifications for taxi drivers in other parts of the world: knowing the city. In other cities, asking a cabbie for restaurant recommendations, directions, or other similar advice is common and frutiful. In Tokyo, you’re spending so much time telling the driver where to go (especially in the winter at night, when the farmers come down from Tohoku), that you’re thrilled if you get where you want to go along a more or less reasonable route.

As for Chrysler, I’m not sure why you guys are so sanguine about them. Nardelli hasn’t been a bust in his previous jobs, but he’s certainly not a sure bet, much less a miracle worker. Furthermore, the fact that Cerberus got the company for a fifth of its previous sale price is not exactly a confidence builder unless you’re Cerberus. Simply responding to customers is not a good formula in the automotive industry, Ford learned that the hard way in the late ’90s and the early part of this decade.

Toyota, on the other hand, did well, it seems, by employing the strategy that study after study shows to be effective, but that dare not speak its name: dictating the market. Produce and sell what you think is “best” for the customers and they’ll buy it on a longer-term basis. After all, Toyota was enjoying some of its biggest growth years in the US, selling small-ish cars, when American consumers were supposed to want bigger and bigger SUVs, which they bought for a little while, but where is Ford now?

Chrysler certainly could recover. It’s even probably that they’ll improve, but I’m not sure I’d put my money on them.

Finally, when Toyota first reached its now lofty ranking, it said it was going to tread carefully, that passing GM too quickly could create an anti-Japanese backlash among American consumers. Do you guys give any credence to the idea that Toyota might be pulling its punches in North America?

Comment by DeOrio

October 26, 2007 @ 1:52 pm

For those interested in the ongoing Nova debacle, check out the latest on Japan Economy News.

Congratulations, Ken, you’re now 2 for 2 in the eikaiwa closures prediction market and the Red Sox are up 2-0.

Comment by WillieAmi

November 4, 2007 @ 12:45 am

Anyone willing to venture the increase in drunking driving related accidents as a result in taxi rate increses?

Comment by Ken Worsley

November 4, 2007 @ 7:11 pm

I’m willing to bet that the taxi rate hike will not bring about a statistically significant increase in drunk driving accidents. The increase is in Tokyo and Kanagawa, which have two of Japan’s lowest per-capita car ownership rates to begin with. The daiko system is still in place, and people tend to use it if they absolutely must get their car home, since getting pulled over drunk is a $3,000 fine minimum. I don’t even think people will really change their habits so much, since the minimum fare increase is really less than 40 cents.

Pingback by BizCast Japan #8 Released : Japan Economy News & Blog

December 2, 2007 @ 11:22 pm

[…] BizCast Japan #8 has been released over at Trans-Pacific Radio. After a bit of a long break, Albrecht Stahmer and I sat down to discuss what’s going on in Japan’s business scene. We’d be flattered if you’d have a listen. […]