Prime Minister Fukuda Resigns

Filed under: Japan in the News, Politics
Posted by Garrett DeOrio at 9:17 pm on Monday, September 1, 2008

At this very moment (about 9:35 p.m. Japan Time on Monday, September 1st), Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is announcing his resignation, interrupting evening television broadcasts. Apparently, he decided to resign last week, feeling it better to step aside prior to the September 12th start of the extraordinary Diet session so as not to cause trouble.

Fukuda said he thought he had laid the groundwork for the next Prime Minister to make progress on the issues he wanted to address, but was unable to completely resolve. He assured the TV audience and press corps that he understood the problems and complaints of the people and strove to do what was best.

So far, the pundits agree that Fukuda had been boxed in by not only the opposition camp, but also the LDP’s coalition partners, who blocked most of his initiatives and showed no sign of making the coming extraordinary Diet session any more friendly than the recent ordinary Diet session or last year’s extraordinary session. For his troubles, Fukuda earned only the disapproval of the citizenry.

As of today, Fukuda’s approval rating stood at 29% - a nine point drop from its high just after the recent Cabinet reshuffle, but, unfortunately for him, one of the higher points for that measure this year. Disapproval was at 63%, an increase of 14 points.

At this point, the question is whether, or by how much, the impending LDP Presidential election will delay a general election (a question that takes us into speculation built on speculation.) Fukuda’s resignation doesn’t change the fact that there still must me a general election no later than September 2009.

With the coming election of a new LDP President and, hence, a new Prime Minister, a Special Session of the Diet will have to be convened. Whether this Special Session will supplant, be subsumed by, or be added onto the already planned Extraordinary Session, I’m trying to find out at the moment. If the latter, Fukuda’s resignation might have been very well-timed indeed. The lenghtened session could even act as a sort of punishment to New Komeito for its lack of loyalty. A longer session would also allow for the fifty-nining of at least one or two of the contentious, deadlock-inducing measures due to face the Diet this Fall, not least of which would be the Indian Ocean refueling mission, up for renewal again, which US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently urged Japan to continue on her visit here.

It would be kind of any readers who can set me straight on the above to comment below.

More to come in the next TPR News.


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Comment by Younghusband

September 1, 2008 @ 9:57 pm

MF scooped you Garret. Can we get some analysis about the Komeito’s interference in this drama?

Comment by Garrett DeOrio

September 1, 2008 @ 10:14 pm

Hats off to MF.

I would say that New Komeito’s pressure on Fukuda to step aside soon certainly didn’t lead him to believe he’d get much done. The ruling coalition had pulled support, essentially - decreasing unity would have left Fukuda being forced out before long.

Trackback by www.japansoc.com

September 1, 2008 @ 10:55 pm

Prime Minister Fukuda Resigns…

Fukuda is out - who is next?…

Comment by Ken Worsley

September 2, 2008 @ 1:24 am

As far as I know, when a new Prime Minister is elected, a special session must be convened. This would give the extra 30 days for the relevant bills to be passed.

Tobias Harris brings up some very good points about an Aso premiership.

I’m not convinced that Aso will win, let alone run, right now. Whoever steps in will keep the Cabinet the same, aside from Farm Minister Ota, who is a bleeding liability.

Fukuda’s cabinet just went down to a 29% approval rating in the most recent Nikkei poll. Who actually wants to lead this right now? Who can Mori convince to take the helm?

Comment by Garrett DeOrio

September 2, 2008 @ 9:42 am

Just as important, the new PM will still face the specter of a general election no more than a year away. Now, if we are back to rotating old men into the premiership as a reward for long service and being well-connected, and expecting them to stay in office for a year or less, the looming election might not interrupt an aging pol’s valedictory. However, none of the prime contenders are in Obuchi territory, and the election might give Aso, especially, pause if he’s not confident about the party’s chances at the polls.

Comment by Ken Worsley

September 2, 2008 @ 9:55 am

Yeah, but remember, Mori came out and basically said that Aso would be the next PM just a couple of weeks ago on national TV.

Comment by Garrett DeOrio

September 2, 2008 @ 10:07 am

Good point. Mori’s word might as well be law here. Perhaps it would have been more accurate of me to have said that Aso might be unhappy that his chance his finally come when it has. Is there any reason to suppose he’s going to see any more cooperation in the extraordinary session than any other PM would?

Comment by Ken Worsley

September 2, 2008 @ 11:12 am

From the Nikkei:

Aso To Run In LDP Presidential Race

TOKYO (Nikkei)–Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Taro Aso said early Tuesday that he intends to run for party president, a position that would automatically make him prime minister.

“I would not deny that I am fit for the LDP president post,” Aso told reporters.

With Monday’s surprise resignation announcement by Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, the focus has turned to the LDP presidential race and the timing for dissolving the lower house.

The LDP is to draw up a schedule for its election on Tuesday. It has been proposed that the campaign kick off Friday, with voting taking place Sept. 15. The party plans to select a new leader by mid-September to avoid a long-term political vacuum given uncertain economic conditions and other pressing matters that need to be addressed.

Although Aso is seen as the front-runner, some young LDP lawmakers and members of the Mori faction, to which Fukuda belongs, are considering backing former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, who is a member of that faction. Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano and Consumer Affairs Minister Seiko Noda are other names that have come up.

Fukuda’s resignation will affect when the lower house will be dissolved for a snap election. Several officials from New Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner, suggested that the lower house is likely to be dissolved this fall. They said the action could be taken either immediately after a new prime minister forms a cabinet or after the Diet approves the supplementary budget to include the economic stimulus package.

Ruling coalition lawmakers are certain to step up calls for the early dissolution of the lower house, especially those of New Komeito, which does not want the lower house election taking place close to next summer’s Tokyo metropolitan assembly election.

A prompt election is an obvious option for the new prime minister, an LDP official told reporters Monday.

Amazing that the LDP seems unable to tell NK to toss off. I know NK helps them get the supermajority, but without being a parasite of the LDP this party would be nothing, and would quickly wither and die. The LDP should have some guts and call their bluff.

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