Seijigiri #52: Armitage in Tokyo, Six Party Talks, and the Aso Premiership Under Siege

Filed under: Seijigiri Releases, Trans-Pacific Radio
Posted by Ken Worsley at 12:07 am on Monday, December 8, 2008

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This edition of Seijigiri begins with co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley considering three diplomatic issues. First, last Friday’s appearance by former US Undersecretary of State Richard Armitage at Keio University is discussed, especially as his comments related to the previous Seijigiri release. After that, talk turns to the upcoming session of the Six Party Talks and North Korea’s decisions to “ignore” the Japanese side at the talks. Finally, this portion of the discussion turns to Japan’s decision to cut off Overseas Development aid to Vietnam. Japan claims that Vietnamese politics is corrupt, while the incident in question involved bribery instigated by a Japanese firm. As Japan is the largest supplier of ODA to Vietnam, consequences of this decision are considered.

The second portion of the show turns to domestic politics. Prime Minister Aso Taro’s approval rating are in freefall. Although this comes as no surprise, the level of intra-party dissent has been somewhat surprising. Former candidate for prime minister Nobuteru Ishihara and former Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe have made waves with statements critical of Mr Aso, while Watanabe has been joined by former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki and Toshimitsu Motegi in forming an association of diet members who are pushing Mr Aso to get the second part of his economic stimulus package through the Diet.

Are they really looking to push economic stimulus? The reality of the matter is that Mr Aso said he would dissolve the Diet and call a general election after getting the second part of the stimulus package through the Diet. These fifty-something lawmakers - the ara fifu group as Shisaku refers to them - seem to have realized that an Aso premiership is not going to lead the LDP to victory in the next election, whenever it may come.

Will the fear of self-preservation lead to further turmoil in the LDP? Did Koizumi make good on his promise to destroy the LDP? This edition of Seijigiri holds that some answers to these questions may come in the following weeks.

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1 Comment »

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Comment by Ken Worsley

December 9, 2008 @ 12:21 am

Jun Okumura put Aso’s situation well in this post:

Short of successfully repelling a major terrorist attack with his skeet rifle, there does not seem to be anything on the horizon that Aso can seize on to improve electoral fortunes before the expiration date arrives next September for the current batch of Lower House members.

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