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March 5, 2009 @ 9:36 am

[…] All of which goes to suggest that Ken Worsley is wrong to argue that the election will simply be a matter of measuring “21 million yen in illegal donations possibly going to balance out against 54 million missing pension payments.” Politics do not work like that — electoral politics do not work like that. The voters are not keeping a running account of the LDP’s failures versus Ozawa’s and the DPJ’s shortcomings. Perceptions matter. Reputations matter. As I wrote in my initial response to this affair, Ozawa has spent years trying to remake himself in the public eye, to present himself as an earnest reformer and not the clone of Tanaka Kakuei. It takes very little to destroy a reputation. By fighting back Ozawa might be able to undo some of the damage, but the initial response has surely undone much of his efforts to remake his public image. How much will it take for the public to conclude that they are better off sticking with the LDP — whose corruption and failures are well known — than switching to the unknown and “irresponsible” DPJ? […]

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March 5, 2009 @ 10:28 am

Baltimoron had this to say…

What about Kaoru Yosano?…

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March 5, 2009 @ 10:55 am

[…] Ozawa Scandal Creates Prospect for a Disappointing Election Contest I’ve always thought the Japanese political custom of resigning after a scandal was a bit selfish. But, the DPJ’s Ichiro Ozawa clearly sees his destiny unfolding as Prime Minister Taro Aso’s popularity plunges toward single digits and a Lower House election looms. Ozawa has sniffed the opportunity for his opposition party to take the government’s reins, which necessitates ditching custom. Regardless of Ozawa’s guilt or future electoral prospects, the probability of a muddle instead of a mandate for either party has increased. Japanese opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa said on Wednesday he would not resign over the arrest of a close aide in a fundraising scandal, but the affair cast a cloud over his party’s prospects in a looming election. Ozawa’s Democrats have been looking increasingly likely to win an election that must be held by October, ending more than 50 years of nearly unbroken rule by Prime Minister Taro Aso’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The latest twist in Japan’s painful political saga raised concern among investors that an election would fail to break a deadlock in parliament that has stalled government efforts to rescue the economy from its worst recession since World War Two. Political analysts said the arrest of the aide on suspicion of accepting illegal corporate donations could still prompt Ozawa to resign and upset predictions of a solid opposition victory in the election — although few expect the struggling LDP to win big as a result. Ken Worsley and Tobias Harris tangle over the aftermath of the affair. Ken Worsley is wrong to argue that the election will simply be a matter of measuring “21 million yen in illegal donations possibly going to balance out against 54 million missing pension payments.” Politics do not work like that — electoral politics do not work like that. The voters are not keeping a running account of the LDP’s failures versus Ozawa’s and the DPJ’s shortcomings. Perceptions matter. Reputations matter. As I wrote in my initial response to this affair, Ozawa has spent years trying to remake himself in the public eye, to present himself as an earnest reformer and not the clone of Tanaka Kakuei. It takes very little to destroy a reputation. By fighting back Ozawa might be able to undo some of the damage, but the initial response has surely undone much of his efforts to remake his public image. How much will it take for the public to conclude that they are better off sticking with the LDP — whose corruption and failures are well known — than switching to the unknown and “irresponsible” DPJ? Worsley argues: “The LDP is still on the ropes, and they don’t have a leader capable of turning Ozawa’s problems into something the voters will care about.” What about Kaoru Yosano? […]

Comment by jenny

May 8, 2009 @ 10:36 pm

ya What about Kaoru Yosano? But, the DPJs Ichiro Ozawa clearly sees his destiny unfolding as Prime Minister Taro Asos popularity plunges toward single digits and a Lower House election looms. Ozawa has sniffed the opportunity for his opposition party to take the government’s reins, which necessitates ditching custom.