Seijigiri: In-depth analysis of Japanese politics

Every other week, Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley get together to record Seijigiri, which takes a hard look at the political issues facing Japan. You can listen to Seijigiri here at Trans-Pacific Radio, or you can subscribe and get each episode automatically, as they're released. It's easy to subscribe to Seijigiri: Just copy and paste the RSS feed link for Seijigiri into iTunes or your favorite RSS reader. Don't forget to come here and comment on the issues!

Seijigiri #44: The Gas Tax Vote, the LDP’s Trouble With Elderly Voters, the Olympic Torch Relay

Filed under: Seijigiri Releases, Trans-Pacific Radio
Posted by Ken Worsley at 12:15 am on Wednesday, April 30, 2008

In this edition of Seijigiri, co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley begin by noting that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda has just returned from a visit to Russia, where he announced over the weekend that he has no intention to reshuffle his Cabinet before the G-8 summit in July.

With this show being recorded on Tuesday the 29th, the lower house vote on extending the gasoline tax was slated to take place on the following day. The discussion turns to the divided Diet and the reasons why the LDP’s pushing the gas tax renewal through the lower house by using its supermajority may cause the Fukuda administration to see a further fall in approval ratings.

After that, the topic of how Japan is portrayed in the overseas media comes up. A recent article published by Time magazine described Japan’s gas tax as part of a trend towards “environmental consciousness.” Our hosts explain why this is simply not true, beginning with the fact that funds raised from the gas tax over the past 34 years have been used exclusively to smother the nation with roads and concrete - the by-products of LDP pork-barrel spending.

The use of funds from the gas tax for projects other than road construction is set to be debated, and possibly voted on, in May. Could this represent an end to the Tanaka-era use of public funds to pave the country? Will we see a new system emerge in which rural areas will not be able to rely on the massive public works projects that bought their votes for the LDP?

After these questions are considered, our hosts close the program by discussing the recent Olympic torch relay in Nagano and how the media has portrayed that event.

As always, thank you for listening.

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Seijigiri #43: Diplomatic Affairs, Fukuda’s Falling Approval Ratings, and “Gridlock” in the Diet

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Posted by Seijigiri at 11:30 pm on Sunday, April 13, 2008

In this edition of Seijigiri, co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley begin by (very) briefly noting that Japan’s sanctions against North Korea have been extended for six more months, before moving to discuss upcoming diplomatic events.

With Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda heading to Russia in early May, Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura is currently in Russia making preparations for that meeting. Once Komura returns from Russia, he will be visited by Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who will head to Japan in order to plan for President Hu Jintao’s visit to Japan from May 6. The discussion focuses on what might be on the agendas as well as what, if any, breakthroughs might be made in terms of Japan-China relations.

After that, the discussion focuses on domestic political issues. Now that a Governor has been found for the Bank of Japan, our hosts look at how the process played out and why Fukuda continues to see his approval ratings slide. Why has the LDP been unable to work with the DPJ, when its stubborn insistence on pushing its own agenda seems to be costing it points with the public?

Finally, the question of replacing Fukuda is raised. A recent interview in the Nikkei with former Prime Minister Yashuhiro Nakasone hints that Fukuda does not have much time left. Our hosts speculate on whether Fukuda will last long enough to host the G-8 summit in July, or whether the LDP would be better off with a fresh face attending the meetings.

Once again, thank you for listening.

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Seijigiri #42: The Pension Fiasco, Continued Hunt for a BOJ Governor, Sentaku and North Korea

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Posted by Seijigiri at 11:37 pm on Tuesday, March 18, 2008

The 42nd release of Seijigiri is out just about on time. In this edition of the show, co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley begin by looking at the continuing mess with Japan’s pension system. Last week, Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Yoichi Masuzoe announced that although 20.25 million of the over 50 million unidentified pension records could not be identified, “As promised, the government has completed its efforts to match all the accounts to their owners by the end of March.” In reality, only 11.72 million accounts have been identified, and just over 4 million have been put into the system.

From there, the discussion turns to look at how party politics are playing out in the process of finding a new Governor for the Bank of Japan. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s candidate, current Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto, has been rejected by the opposition controlled Upper House. Although this story is still active and being played out, it seems as though the DPJ’s near-shameless politicalization of the issue is actually good for Japan in some ways.

After that, Seijigiri takes a look at newly formed citizen group Sentaku, a movement which, in the words of Jun Okamura, “[D]ecries the political passivity on the part of the public and the reliance on the central bureaucracy and seeks to launch a thoroughgoing reform in the way we live and work by way of a new bottom-up, people’s rights movement.” Who’s involved and what are they up to?

Finally, a quick glance is made towards North Korea, as the Japanese government has decided to extend the economic sanctions against the country that were set to expire in April. Although Japan’s issues with North Korea have has low priority in the news cycle over the past few months, our hosts postulate on just what might happen to push North Korea back on the front page.

As always, thank you for listening!

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Seijigiri #41: The Budget is Passed, and Fukuda is Feeling the Pressure

Filed under: Seijigiri Releases, Trans-Pacific Radio
Posted by Seijigiri at 11:53 pm on Monday, March 3, 2008

This edition of Seijigiri is a day late, but hopefully less than a dollar short (what’s the dollar worth now anyway?)

Co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley begin with a brief discussion on Friday’s passing of the national budget by the lower house, which guarantees that it will be set to go into effect when the new fiscal year starts in April.

From there, the discussion moves to focus on Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, and the reasons why his approval ratings are dropping (as well as why his disapproval ratings are falling). Like his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, Fukuda took the helm during an extraordinary Diet session and seems to have run into trouble early in his first regular session. With the public unhappy over his administration’s response to the poison gyoza scandal, the sinking of a fishing vessel by an MSDF destroyer, and political gridlock arising from the opposition’s control of the upper house, our hosts ponder how Fukuda could survive, and what pressures he’s going to encounter in the runup to this summer’s G-8 conference in Hokkaido.

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Seijigiri #40: The MSDF heads out, Gasoline and Capital Gains Taxes, Fukuda’s Policy Speech, and the 2008 National Budget

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Posted by Seijigiri at 1:53 am on Sunday, January 27, 2008

Welcome to the 40th release of Seijigiri! In this edition of the show, co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley begin by remarking on the resumption of the Marine Self Defense Forces refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, and quickly move on to discuss the beginning of the 2008 Diet Session. Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda’s policy speech is examined, and the discussion turns to the battle over the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s proposed extension of temporary taxes on gasoline. With oil prices shooting through the roof over the past few months, might the opposition Democratic Party of Japan be able to come to the side of the average person by pushing for tax relief?

The issue gets complicated as a recent proposal by 58 LDP Diet members to extend tax breaks on capital gains and dividend income taxes is discussed. Given the turmoil in Japan’s financial markets at the beginning of 2008, it seems wise to propose decreased tax burdens for market players, but might this alienate them from those who suffer from the extension of the gasoline tax? Will Japan’s gas-guzzling businesses and taxpayers appreciate efforts to make market players happy? Given the situation with Japan’s budget, can reduced taxes in both areas be affordable?

Talk then turns to the budget itself, and the line items are dissected. With social security spending being the most expensive line item on the budget at close to 22 trillion yen, up 3% from last year, and 20 trillion yen of the nation’s 83 trillion yen budget still funded by “deficit bonds,” is a financial crisis looming for Japan?

The show ends with some commentary on the possibility of a Lower House election in 2008, and since campaign posters have already been spotted in some places by our co-hosts, a plea is made to the listeners of Seijigiri…

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Seijigiri #39: MSDF back to the Indian Ocean, Pensions, Consumer Affairs and the end of the 2007 Diet Session (Finally!)

Filed under: Seijigiri Releases, Trans-Pacific Radio
Posted by Ken Worsley at 3:00 pm on Sunday, January 13, 2008

It’s the first release of 2008, but Seijigiri is still talking about the 2007 Diet session, which has been extended beyond the new year. Of course, the main reason for the extension has been to pass a new bill allowing the Maritime Self-Defense Forces to return to their refueling mission in support of coalition forces in the Indian Ocean.

Just before this release was recorded, the Upper House voted 133-106 to reject the bill, as expected. The Lower House countered by using its supermajority in a third vote to push the bill through with a 340-133 vote (the Upper House voted for the law back on November 13; Yes, that’s how long this has been dragged out).

In this edition of Seijigiri, co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley start things off by discussing the extended diet session and what we learned from it. Will domestic issues come back to the forefront now that the refueling bill and the Moriya scandal are out of the way? Has either major party learned much from the results of last July’s Upper House election?

The discussion then moves into developments with social insurance, pensions, consumer affairs and the battle over who may be the next Governor of the Bank of Japan. These are some of the domestically-focused, bread-and-butter issues where we expect to see the focus of the government shift to in 2008, especially if there is to be the possibility of an election in the lower house.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Shisaku
What Japan Thinks
We here at TPR are quite fond of both and recommend them highly.

Also great for news on and analysis of Japanese politics and more (and also highly recommended by TPR):
Observing Japan
Global Talk 21

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Seijigiri #38: A Review of Politics in Japan in 2007

Filed under: Seijigiri Releases, Trans-Pacific Radio
Posted by Ken Worsley at 3:42 am on Sunday, December 30, 2007

As promised in our last release, we are back with the Seijigiri year-end special. This double release covers the issues that faced Japan’s political scene over the past 12 months, and evaluates the performance of the Abe and Fukuda administrations. A year ago, co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley both predicted that Abe would not last through 2007 as Prime Minister, and this release includes their discussion of Mr Fukuda’s chances of lasting into 2009.

Other issues touched upon are the lessons of the Abe administration, the potential consequences of last July’s upper house election, how the Democratic Party of Japan fared in 2007, what the DPJ might do in 2008, and the (seemingly) endless string of PR disasters that confronted Japan on the international stage in 2007.

As always, thank you for listening. We managed to release 23 episodes of Seijigiri in 2007, and hope to have many more in the coming year. We would like to once again take the time to thank Adam Richards of the Mutant Frog Travelogue and Tobias Harris of Observing Japan for each appearing as guest co-host twice in 2007. In addition, Debito Arudo appeared as a guest commentator on two episodes of Seijigiri in 2007, and his upper house election predictions were the most accurate we had seen. We hope to have them all back in the coming year!

We promise to be back soon with our preview for Japan’s political scene for 2008.

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Seijigiri #37: The Moriya Scandal, China, Ozawa, and Speculation on Fukuda

Filed under: Seijigiri Releases, Trans-Pacific Radio
Posted by Ken Worsley at 12:30 am on Sunday, December 9, 2007

Welcome to the 37th edition of Seijigiri! In this episode, co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley begin by taking a look at the scandal surrounding former Vice Defense Minister Moriya, and why this issue is both important and not important. From there, the discussion moves on to the recent visit to China by Ichiro Ozawa, and the state of relations between Japan and China.

The discussion then turns to Japan’s role in the war on terror, and whether or not the Diet will approve a bill allowing Japan to resume its actions in the Indian Ocean in support of the US-led war on terror.

The discussion finishes with some speculation as to when a Lower House election might be called, how long Prime Minister Fukuda will last, and some reasons why the Democratic Party of Japan is not quite pulling its weight as an opposition party.

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Seijigiri #36: Ozawa’s Melodrama, Japan’s Mission in the Indian Ocean, Abe’s Concessions on the Comfort Women Issue, and Wasteful Government Spending

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Posted by Ken Worsley at 8:00 am on Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Seijigiri is back with release #36, and co-hosts Garrett DeOrio and Ken Worsley jump straight into the latest news and discuss the situation surrounding Democratic Party of Japan president Ichiro Ozawa. Ozawa offered his resignation last Sunday and rescinded that offer a few days later, in response to internal party pressure that he stay on.

Our hosts consider what this means for the DPJ, what it says about the party itself, and how it might affect the DPJ’s relationship with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

After that, the talk turns to Japan’s mission in the Indian Ocean, where support for the US-led coalition forces ended on November 1. The current extraordinary Diet session, which has been extended by 35 days, will prove to be a test for Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda. Will he be able to get a new bill passed allowing Japan to take (symbolic) part in coalition actions?

Then, the discussion turns to revelations that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dropped his claims that there was no proof that the Japanese military had coerced (in the “narrow” sense) women into sexual servitude during the second world war in exchange for US support with regards to the North Korean abductee issue. Was Abe given a face-saving way out of his untenable stance?

Finally, our hosts take a look at a recent report by the Board of Audit that the government spent 31 billion yen in 451 wasteful and inappropriate accounting cases during fiscal 2006. Which ministry took the title of wasting the most taxpayer money? Who wasted the least? You’ll have to listen to find out…

As always, thank you for listening.
(Read on …)

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